Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
